What if the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) had taken over in 1965.

Hypothetical: What Would’ve Happened if the Communists Took Over in 1965?

Halo Friend,

Time for a “hypothetical”, an exercise in imagination, fiction and history. What would have happened if the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) had emerged victorious from the events of September 30, 1965?

I’d like to invite Indonesia Matters readers to contribute their own imagined histories and scenarios.

Mine will follow. I’ll probably get a lot wrong, and my scenarios may be wild and fantastic. Some may find it controversial. No doubt, some will accuse me of justifying dictatorship.

There will be a lot of problems with this exercise.

Everyone will have a different view, but that’s the point.

But here goes.

Three different versions of history in instalments.

Communists Take Power in Indonesia, 1965.

In each scenario, I’ll imagine that some of the Military were concerned with purely their own interests and sided with the winners, in this case the PKI. We’ll assume a Islamic/Nationalist faction side against with the communists and decide to fight. The Navy and Air Force (I think) were already leaning towards the PKI.

Optimistic: Scenario 1.

Aidit, PKI leader, is appointed emergency President of Indonesia. He orders the military to restore order. There are clashes between pro-and anti PKI forces in the villages, countryside and cities. The military is ordered not to use excessive force or to intervene. Confused, the soldiers stand by and let the civilian militia fight it out. The fighting dies down after about five years, but the military is accused of “doing nothing.”

Aidit eventually becomes chairman of the Indonesian Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR), and restores democracy, but the other major parties, Masyumi, and the Partai Nasionalis Indonesia (PNI) complain of heavy bullying and intimidation. Nevertheless, the PKI emerge as kind of “Eurocommunists.”

The PKI restore democracy, bringing an end to Soekarno’s “Guided Democracy.” They nationalize all remaining Western and many private businesses. Bulog is created, totally taking over distribution of food and basic commodities. (Indonesia’s ethnic Chinese are very angry and become staunch opponents of the communists).

The PKI pursue a Soviet Bloc/Chinese model of development, pursuing “Socialism with Indonesian Characteristics”. Economic growth is 0% due to the withdrawal of capital and economic disruption, but famine is averted.

Islamist leaders in Aceh, West Java, Makassar, and other devout parts of Indonesia all set aside cherished desires for an Islamic state and accept Communist-led government. Initially, some PKI leaders had worried about secessionists, but are happy to allow Islamist leaders to call on the Umat to revolt and in some cases, mercilessly slay the godless atheists.

Yet multi-party democracy is allowed. In 1970, Indonesia holds its first multi-party elections since 1955, and the PKI are soundly defeated, with a PNI-Masyumi coalition taking power. PNI-Masyumi follow a conventional Western model of development, but the PKI, who still control 35 % of parliament, stall all major efforts at reform.

Eventually, Indonesia settles on a Socialist-Democrat model, pursuing a similar growth path to India. Mass poverty (as measured by the World Bank), remains, as India’s did, at over 50% for 25 years. The public-works programs financed by Jakarta alleviate some of the the worst symptoms of poverty, as they did in Kerala and China, but Indonesia remains amongst Asia’s very poorest nations. In the mid 1990s, Indonesia embarks on a messy stop-start market liberalization program that continues to this day.

Medium: Scenario 2.

PKI realize persuasion – as well as force – must be used to bring about Communism in Indonesia. Soekarno announces “Nasakom”, the blend of Nationalism, Communism and Religion, will be the guiding ideology of Indonesia. Soekarno stays in power.

The PKI strikes a deal with the Nahdlatul Ulama: Muslims still allowed to pray and practice in in private life in return for supporting the party. Some Kyais accept. Some violently object, joining a nation-wide widespread Islamic revolt against Jakarta, supported by the Muhammadiyah.

The ideological battle for the countryside that has been raging since the mid-1950s continues. By about 1970, the rivalry between Soekarno and the PKI intensifies, with Soekarno wooing the nationalist faction of the military. Inflation remains at 600% overall and 1000% in rice prices, bringing about widespread malnutrition in Java and famine in Eastern Indonesia, East of Lombok.

By 1972, the human crisis has become unbearable and the army intervenes whilst the politicians bicker. A reckoning with the PKI’s forces in the countryside follows.

Pessimistic: Scenario 3

Aidit appointed emergency President. Like Soekarno he appoints himself President for life and declares Indonesia must “return to the year zero”. Forced collectivization of the countryside, as in China and Cambodia. Village life is completely reordered around rural collectives.

All land becomes the property of the state and the PKI, which is the vanguard of the people. There is no problem because the people still own the land. Capitalist running-dogs are to be eliminated and the military is deployed to enforce the will of the people.

Religious and ethnic rebellions in Aceh, Makassar, West Java, Bali, Madura, and many parts of Central Java, where a Maoist state in Jakarta radicalizes even some Nahdlatul Ulama. Factions of the Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI) side with the rebels. Aidit vows he will fight to his death to bring about the “Will of the People” in Indonesia. Civil war ensues. Jakarta proves unable to retain control over much of Sumatra and Sulawesi. Kalimantan secedes, as does Papua. Java left to support Eastern Indonesia.